Thursday, April 8, 2010

Will there be a correction or a consolidation?

The Straits Times Index seems to have difficulty in challenging the 3,000 point resistance.

According to DBS Vickers:
Upside in the STI will be capped at 3000 with risk of a consolidation down towards February low of 2665 in 2Q. Current valuation is also fairly valued at 14.4x
FY10 and 12.6x FY11.

With rate hike concerns, risk of sovereign debt issues
ballooning and earlier than expected pull out of stimulus plans
looming, we believe that further gains on the index is limited
and will prefer to be ever more selective from here.

Furthermore, we have also observed that historically,
Singapore market tends to top 1-2 months before the start of
the FIFA World Cup tournament. This points to a potential top
in the April-May period.
The potential volatility in global
indices such as the Dow and FTSE100 in 2Q could also have
spillover effects here. Besides, the rotational swing to penny
stocks despite STI making marginal gains also signals that the
market rebound that started from early February has reached
a late stage.


According to Goola Warden:
The STI has risen by 45 points so far this week to close at 2,988 on Wednesday, the highest level since the global financial crisis in 2008. No surprise though that short-term indicators are on the high side with stochastics at the top end of their range. Any retreat should be temporary, and find support at the 2,933 range, a former resistance. The break above 2,913 indicated a target of 3,146 and this remains attainable.

What I think:
The stock market is definitely going to come down soon, but I do not know the extent. But there is no harm in taking some money off the table. and wait for better entry later. Therefore, here's my plan: Sell half of my holdings in Swiber immediately. Move my exit price to protective stop on the remaining half.

As for Noble, it is already so low, and there is this meeting on Monday that will decide the fate of MacArthur. Let's just gamble and see if my stop loss gets triggered.

Update: I'm out of Noble after my protective stop was triggered. There are just too many factors going against the trade at the moment, such as the postponement of the meeting, and the entry of other parties on the MacArthur deal. Thus has turned Noble from a high probability trade into a gamble. Therefore, I will avoid.

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