A buying opportunity in Noble?

Shares of Noble Group (N21.SG), down as much as 6.0% since vice-chairman Harry Banga's unprecedented sale of his own shares last week, may remain depressed on uncertainty over sale of company's Gloucester Coal (GCL.AU) to Macarthur Coal (MCC.AU) and its ties with Macarthur. This, after Macarthur reveals it has received interest from a party seeking controlling stake. Person familiar with matter tells Dow Jones U.S. coal company Peabody Energy (BTU) keen on Macarthur. Noble expected to have about 24% stake in Macarthur once it completes Gloucester sale, move deemed positive by analysts as it gives Noble bigger exposure to coal industry, although that may be uncertain now given potential new owner for Macarthur. "It's too early to say how this will affect the sale of Gloucester Coal by Noble to Macarthur because there are no details about the bid. The key question is whether Noble will throw in a competing bid and whether it will bid aggressively," says analyst at Singapore brokerage. Stock closed down 0.3% at S$3.14 yesterday.

But, according to DBSVickers:
Peabody Energy submitted a non-binding indicative proposal
to acquire Macarthur Coal at A$13/share. This offer price
values Macarthur Coal at 34% premium over implied price in
share swap proposal with Noble Group to acquire Gloucester
Coal. News may be viewed negative for the share swap
proposal, but Noble’s value is not impacted. Buy call and
S$3.70 TP unchanged.

Reasons:
More upside to valuation, on higher capacity ramp up and lower coal costs. Earnings forecasts have been revised up by 21.4-27.0% for FY10/11 to reflect higher agriculture and coal target volumes. Reaffirm Buy call with upgraded TP of S$3.70


The technical picture definitely looks increasingly attractive:
Price is sitting comfortably on the 50% retracement level from 9 Feb low to 17 Mar high, at 3.04. There is price support on Thursday's (1 Apr) low of 3.01. Price is seen to be rebounding nicely off these support levels.

Stochastics/ RSI still at oversold levels, and have not turned up. However, in the past, whenever RSI/ stochastics crossed into oversold territory, it always presents a "buy" opportunity on Noble.

GMAA also have crossed down and have not turned up. This indicator is reliable, but lagging.

On the broader market, STI has bounced off from its sell-off on Wed, and is on its its way to retest its high set on 11 Jan. This level should be broken in the coming week.

On a personal note, I have always wanted to buy Noble, but in the past, either the price has moved up too fast for me, or my funds are already tied up elsewhere. Perhaps, finally it has come at the right time for me to buy. But, until now, I always find it difficult to buy when everyone else is selling. So, let's have a plan that will allow me to reap the most benefit with the least risk:

Buy: 3.06
SL: 3.00 (just below 3.01 support)

If stopped out, bid again once price recovers to 3.06.
If not stopped out, quickly move stop to entry level.
No profit target for the moment.

Why is there a need for such tight stops? Because I do not want to be caught in a correction, given that the market has gone up quite substantially from its Feb lows.