Sunday, November 8, 2009

Tan Teng Boo expects stocks will surge another 30%, whilst Guppy expects stocks to come down

Tan Teng Boo has more than 30 years investing experience, recently generating gains of over 64% for his iCapital Global Fund, outperforming most global funds. One of the stocks he bought in January this year was Keppel Corp, at an average price of between $4.10 and $4.20. What was impressive about him, was that Tan did not pay himself a salary, or take a director's fee from the fund that he managed. He literally lives on the investment gains generated by his personal portfolio.

According to Tan, the first stage of the bull run, when stocks substantially rebound from their oversold levels, has ended. What global equity markets are experiencing now is the second stage, when economic growth and corporate earnings are recovering. This stage could last a while. The third stage is when the economic and earnings recovery becomes enforcing. That would happen, when the bull market is maturing, perhaps in 2011. "Investors should take advantage of the second and third stages of the market uptrend," Tan says.

"Roubini got the downturn right, but the upturn wrong," says Tan. Tan is convinced the general direction of the global market over the long term is up, supported by a "long boom" which he defines as China-led secular economic growth that could last for decades.

Recently, Tan has added several new holdings to its fund. This included Mermaid Maritime, which Tan bought at 70 cents. According to Tan, Mermaid is attractive in terms of valuations and growth prospects. It currently operates a fleet of oil supply vessels in the northern part of Western Australia, where Chevron has discovered the Gorgon oil fields. It is a huge project, and Mermaid will benefit from it for many many years to come. Its entry into M East market and delivery of a tender rig/ 3 subsea vessels could spur earnings.

Daryl Guppy, however, has warned of a correction of 10% to 20% in price. He is anticipating the rest of North Asia and Singapore to follow in the footsteps of the Shanghai index, which has corrected 20%, before moving sideways. Shorting opportunities if Hang Seng breaks 21,000 and STI breaks 2,650. Longer term, however, Guppy does expect markets to rebound.

Therefore, the take now, in the short-term, markets could correct, but in the long term definitely, the markets would resume their uptrend.

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