Thursday, October 8, 2009

Market is turning more and more bullish - I must really run now

According to Jon Markman:

Repayments are flooding in. Iceland is writing a $6 billion check to the U.K. and Netherlands, U.S. banks have repaid Washington $4 billion, Switzerland got $1 billion from its sale of UBS.
Industrial production and manufacturing numbers are eye-popping: Singapore, up 38%, Philippines, up 11%, Spain, Germany, Japan, U.K., up, up, up.
Retailers are more bullish than in two years, with everyone from Tiffany to Intel rushing to boost their guidance. Inventories are shockingly low, and restocking could add as much as 2% to the GDP next year.


Corporate profits are up 24% in the first 6 months of ’09. Wow!
Durable goods orders are up 4.9% month over month.
Unemployment has peaked at 9.8%, denying the bears their 10% headline.
Housing sales, too, are up 7.2%, with new housing sales up 9.6%.
Housing is back. The Case-Schiller index actually ROSE in June—an incredible turn- around. It will rise again in the next reading.
The bull market you haven’t been told about is in the credit market. Debt investors—these are the money Leviathans that caused the ’07 - ’09 bear market in stocks—are raging bulls. Never bet against these guys. For every dollar in stocks, these guys push around $5. And right now, they are stampeding into credit.

Often, when such a bounty of good news starts to percolate into the headlines (it hasn’t yet), investors begin to worry about inflation. But not this time.
While stock investors quail, bond investors snort and rage.
Consider: Bonds issued by Wells Fargo and Citigroup, which you couldn’t have given away in March, are now trading for more than they did in early 2007!
Follow the bond traders!
Central bankers—even the French!—swore a blood oath at Jackson Hole NOT to raise rates. To do so anytime soon would be to repeat the mistake of the Great Depression.
In short, the bears don’t have a hope. Even now, they are quietly packing up their bags and grouchily retreating back into the woods. We are on the launch pad.
The countdown has begun.

Looking at the Singapore market, it seems like the fall last week was more like a mild correction.
Many counters are starting to climb back, irritatingly including Ezion. It is only a matter of time that it covers the gap upwards. What a waste of money and time! I will cut loose my position tomorrow, for my third consecutive loss, and my worst trading record.

I feel, I really need to take a break from trading. If I have stuck to Wilmar all along, I could already be on the way back to breaking even. Blame my impulsiveness and my impatience to "get rich quick", thereby leading to my impaired sense of judgement.

Lesson learnt: Never trade against the trend.

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