Orchard Parade kept dropping the moment I bought ... amidst a falling market... I'm to blame for not taking into consideration the overall market sentiment.
It had initially looked poised for a recovery from its correction, what with bullish engulfing and rising stochastics amidst increased volumes, but now, it has broken its lower channel and 50-day MA, all in a matter of days. My SL at 0.98 has also been triggered.
Now, I must consider the options.
1. Do nothing now, and wait for buying opportunity later (conservative)
Since this is still a rising market, wait for the correction to be over (it should, once prices fall to 200-day MA, then start buying again).
Advantage: I stay out of the volatility and uncertainty of short-term downwards price action.
Disadvantage: I may have to sit out the entire correction, which may mean a few months of opportunity cost.
2. Sell the markets, and then buy back later (aggressive)
Another approach is to sell the markets now, make the profit on the downside. Then buy the market later, and ride profits back on the upside.
Advantage: I earn both ways. No waiting involved.
Disadvantage: I may be stopped dead in my shorting positions, since I'm shorting amidst an uptrend.
So, what should I do?
I am inclined to go with the second choice. This is based on:
1. The stock market is currently overvalued.
2. I have been stopped out twice on my long positions. This is indicative of at least a
short-term change in trend.
3. Funds are no longer buying aggessively at this juncture.
4. It is still early days to short, since most counters are just breaking supports, so there is still margin for profits.
What are the counters to short? In fact, let's start with the counters that I have longed before.
1. Wilmar
Broken below lower channel, 50-day MA.
2. Orchard Parade
Broken below lower channel, 50-day MA.
Others include:
3. Allgreen
4. Keppel Land
5. Wing Tai
Using a capital outlay of $10,000:
Wilmar
If I short 2 lots at 6.16, using a rough guide of 23% as TP1 and 38% as TP2:
TP1: 5.75
TP2: 4.98
my net profit will be $ 1,590
Orchard Parade
If I short 10 lots at 0.995, using a rough guide of 38% as TP (23% is already taken):
TP: 0.915
my net profit will be $800
Wing Tai
If I short 8 lots at 1.64, using a rough guide of 38% as TP (it is resting on its 23% now):
TP:1.40
my net profit will be $1,920
Keppel Land
If I short 4 lots at 2.66:
TP1: 2.53
TP2: 2.24
my net profit will be $1,100.
Allgreen
If I short 10 lots at 1.09, since it is resting at 23%,
TP: 0.915
my net profit will be $1,750.
Therefore, it seems clear enough to me that I had to short Wing Tai, which is also
the popular choice amongst analysts.
The plan then:
Short 8 lots at 1.64
Buy at 1.41
Buy stop at 1.81
Potential Profit: $1,800
Potential Loss: $1,300
Sunday, October 4, 2009
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