Tuesday, October 6, 2009

A bullish argument

Louis Navallier argued for a bullish stock market this way (I remembered him arguing correctly in summer 2006, when there was a correction):

Our research shows beyond doubt a massive stock surge is forming in the next 14 days, and there’s simply no stopping it. The recent sell-off is giving you the opportunity to pick up some of our top-rated stocks at prices you won’t see in years.

Reasons:
1. A clear business recovery is gaining momentum.
2. The sideline money is flowing back into the market—and in a big way.
3. Jobless claims are declining, and the massive layoffs the press has been predicting are not materializing.
4. Manufacturing is expanding and triggering a boost in consumer confidence. I’m not the only one saying this.
5. The housing market is clearly recovering, too. Just look at how the S&P’s Homebuilding Index has risen by more than 30% percent this year.
6. Only 16% of the Fed stimulus money has been spent to date.
7. The FED is turning extremely positive, too.

What does this imply, since I'm currently short? Do i get out of my position? Hell, no. Stick to
the trading plan.

But, it is definitely a stark reminder that things can go either way, and be prepared for the unexpected. Actually, this argument is congruent with my belief that the market remain in bullish mode, although a correction is inevitable. And, I want to take advantage of the correction.

However, I will make some adjustments:
1. Reduce my trading positions by half.
2 Set 0.78 as the absolute stop loss and 0.62 as the only TP.

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