Sunday, September 6, 2009

Is the correction in China over?

I do feel that the correction in China over the past few weeks is over, and shares are rising again from their support lines. To me, the best bet is my old friend, Sino-Ocean. Here's the take:

1. Prices are moving up from lower uptrend channel.
2. Prices are moving up from 38.2% support line.
3. Prices have cleared all MA lines.
4. Volumes are expanding.

The plan:

1. Buy 2 lots at 8.05
2. Stop-loss at 6.86
3. TP1: 9.25
4. TP2: 11.65
Potential loss: $500
Potential gain: $1,000

An article from the Edge supporting my view:

"China's stock market slump has restored value, making it more attractive than Asian nations including South Korea and India. China is as "oversold" relative to the region as a year ago. The relative strength index of China relative to the rest of the region is less than 30, the level that signals to some analysts that prices are poised to rebound. Whenever the RSI of relative MSCI China to the rest of Asia gets this week, China typically outperforms the region. Based on our estimated sustainable return on equity, the market is no longer expensive, even on our more conservative estimates for margins and asset turnover. Merril Lynch joins Goldman Sachs in being optimistic about the prospects for Chinese shares. Mark Mobius, on Sep 2 recommended China's shares because of fast growth in the country."

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