Monday, August 3, 2009

Abortion of plan

I have not followed through with the Ezion trade. I think I must learn to let go of some trades so as to wait for better opportunities.
Came across this article from IDE today "Last week the Vickers Weekly Insider Report listed current insider selling at 4.16 to 1. That means more than four times as many shares owned by insiders are being sold than bought.

The last time this indicator was this high was the beginning of one of the biggest sell offs in history, October 2007, the top of the 2002-2007 bull market. "So, why isn't the average investor following suit and getting out? Recent market activity indicates most are just getting in. This gets even more confusing when you consider that in late March and early April of this year, the same insider sell index was .72 to 1. This was an indication that almost no insiders were selling. I'm sure you already know this was when the current stock rebound started."

Coupled with my own belief that the stock market is meeting with a correction soon, I will not follow through with this plan.

The article continued "Sell indicators don't get any more accurate than this. Why aren't people selling into this news?
One reason is Wall Street's rule of thumb, "insiders are always early." The belief is there's still money to be made. This lure of making more money always gets in the way of rational thought and decision making.

Of course, these are the same Wall Street pundits who never seem to put out sell recommendations and put buys out the same day stocks hit their 52 week highs. Merrill Lynch was famous for this.

Insiders are usually early and that's the good news. They're giving us another gift - an early warning. These are some of the best and brightest in the business world. If they're selling it's for a good reason.

Most people missed the chance to take profits in 2008. Most missed the run up this spring and most will be caught with their pants down again. It doesn't have to be this way."

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