Saturday, June 6, 2009
Stock market to correct soon?
The MSCI Emerging Market index is now at an 8-month high. Inflows of funds totalled US$12b, or 3.5% of developing nation fund assets. The only other time since 2001 that funds attracted as much cash, in Feb 2006, the MSCI lost 8.4% in 4 months. Therefore, the pattern signals an "imminent" drop. Fund flows at their extremes are contrary indicators, noted Leo Grohowski, CIO, BNY Mellon. Blackrock and Aberdeen are also forecasting a downturn after the MSCI index's PE ratio almost doubled this year. The gauge has advanced 61% since Feb and now trades for 15.2 times reported profits, the most expensive level since Dec 2007. So, let's be prepared for the impending correction, even though personally, I think the uptrend should remain intact. It should however, afford me another opportunity to get back in on the China train, after my unfortunate brush with Sino (my fault, really).
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