Here's two more pros' opinoions on the current stock rally:
By Robert Prechter (I correctly followed his advice to get out of shorts in Mar this year)
The U.S. S&P 500 stock index’s rebound by nearly 40 percent since it sagged to a 12-year closing low of 676 points on March 9 is not sustainable, Prechter said in an interview with Reuters.
“It’s not the start of a new bull market,” said Prechter, chief executive at research company Elliott Wave International in Gainesville, Georgia. “Our models are (showing) right now that it is a much bigger bear market than most people realize, something along the lines of 1929-1932,” he told Reuters in a wide ranging interview. “It’s a very rare event,” he added.
“I think the next leg down will be at least as severe if not more severe than what we just experienced. So you want to stay on the side of safety,” he said.
“Deflation is coming, it’s going to lead to a depression. We’re not at the bottom yet,” Prechter said. “I think we are going to have bouts of deflation separated by recoveries.”
By Jim Walker
The rally doesn't seem to be based on any fundamentals, because there is no real economic recovery behind it, no strong corporate earnings growth that is fuelling it. His main worry is China. People are underestimating the seriousness of the problems in China. The stock market is rallying now only because the world is pumping so much money at a time when there is little economic activity. The money has to go somewhere. It's going into Asian stock markets. Indicators are telling this outspoken economist that the world may still be a long way from the awaited recovery.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
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