Sunday, March 29, 2009

Buy commodities/ commodities currencies

2 gurus indicated in The Edge this week that commodities currencies are poised to make a comeback.

The first, Michael Aronstein, predicted last year's commodities collapse. He is betting that prices have bottomed, and has started buying commodities and said "People have gotten way too negative about the global economy.. One of the things that is unique now is that we've just seen a whole bear-market cycle in commodities within a six- or eight- month span.... Now, you're going to see things trading more in line with the fundamentals of each commodity..... All these emerging markets, like China and India, they still have a lot of money. I can't imagine that these countries are going to let the power go out or let people go hungry. The basic level of consumption is going to continue and the supply capacity has plunged. These prices will have to come up."

The second, Chua Soon Hock, says commodity currencies are "likely to strengthen as central bank efforts to add funds to financial markets fuel inflation, boosting the appeal of raw materials as a hedge". Chua recommended buying Australian $ against JPY, because Australia is resource-rich, whereas Japan is poor in resources. Also, the Japanese economy is sinking. The AUD-JPY pair is also a very liquid pair of currency.

I check the charts, and although they are showing signs of reversal for this pair, at this juncture, initiating a position is difficult. This is because, there are way too many resistance lines getting in the way. I need the charts to indicate a more conducive picture. But I will definitely be monitoring this pair. Incidentally, I also find this pair to be the very promising.

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