Building a case for a short-term punt on Noble:
Fundamental: Results out on 10 Nov. CEO has already said that it would be the greatest ever!
Technical: Counter made an impressive gain of > 20% today, on increased volumes. This is on the back of a Bullish candlestick engulfing, and RSI crossing back >30.
Risk-Reward: Impressive, at 0.70-0.15 or approx. 4 times reward-risk. Time may be ripe for a bear market rally.
The case against:
1. LT trend still down: Didn't I promise myself not to trade against trend?
2. Market still in a bear mode. Punters may already have gone far earlier than me, and I am left carrying the bomb.
Should I take a risk?
Keep to the promise. Avoid punting, and instead short if it truly shoots up.
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